Homicide in post-Soviet Belarus: urban-rural trends

Abstract

Background: To investigate the occurrence of homicide in urban and rural regions of Belarus in the post-Soviet period. Methods: All-age male and female homicide mortality and population data were obtained for the years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 for urban and rural regions of Belarus. These data were recalculated into three age categories and directly standardised. To assess relative changes in rural-urban homicide rates across time Poisson regression models were used to calculate rate ratios. Results: Between 1990 and 1995 homicide rates rose sharply in urban and rural regions although the rise was greater in the former. Although there was little change in homicide rates in 2000, a notable divergence had occurred by 2005. While homicide rates rose slightly in rural areas, a large fall occurred in the rates of both men and women in urban areas. This resulted in significantly higher rural homicide rate ratios at the end of the study period. With some variations age-specific homicide rates followed this overall general pattern resulting in significantly higher homicide rate ratios in all rural groups aged 15 and above in 2005. Conclusion: It is probable that a combination of factors such as high levels of poverty, the effects of alcohol consumption, as well as the poor provision of emergency medical services underlie both the high levels of lethal violence and the growing rural-urban divergence in homicide rates in contemporary Belarus. Urgent action is now needed to address the deteriorating social and economic conditions underpinning violence, especially in rural regions.