Road traffic mortality attributable to alcohol in Russia

Abstract

Background: The road accident mortality rates in Russia are the highest in Europe. The growing evidence suggests that drunk driving is the leading cause of fatal road accidents in Russia. ^ Objectives: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of changes in aggregate-level alcohol consumption on fatal road traffic accidents in Russia between 1970 and 2015. Methods: Age-standardized sex-specific male and female traffic accidents mortality data for the period 1970-2015 and data on alcohol consumption per capita were analyzed by means ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time series analysis. Results: Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female traffic accidents mortality rates: a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 3.5% increase in the male accident mortality rate and in 2.1% increase in the female mortality rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 38.3% of all male accident deaths and 25.2% female deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. Conclusions: This is the first time-series analysis of overall level of alcohol consumption and road traffic mortality rates in Russia, which has shown that population drinking, is the strong predictor of road traffic fatalities at the aggregate level.